Evaluation of Statistical PMP Considering RCP Climate Change Scenarios in Republic of Korea

Extreme rainfall and floods have increased in frequency severity recent years, due to climate change urbanization. Consequently, interest estimating the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) has been burgeoning. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommends two types of methods for calculating PMP: hydrometeorological statistical methods. This study proposes a modified Hershfield’s nomograph method assesses changes PMP values based on representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 RCP8.5) scenarios South Korea. To achieve intended objective, five techniques were employed compute PMPs (SPMPs). Moreover, most suitable was selected by comparing calculated SPMP with (HPMP), applying criteria. Accordingly, SPMPs from compared HPMPs historical period 2020 future 2100 RCP 4.5 8.5 scenarios, respectively. results confirmed that showed smallest MAE (mean absolute error), MAPE percentage RMSE (root mean square which are best HPMP an average SPMP/HPMP ratio 0.988 period. In addition, varying KM exhibits worst both ratios 0.377 RCP4.5 0.304 RCP8.5, On contrary, appropriate SPMPs: 0.878 0.726 under respectively,